Trade Analysis

Steve Phillips hasn't done much right recently. True, his tenure with the Mets includes the signings of Robin Ventura (a major factor in the Mets' recent success) and Mike Piazza (the greatest offensive catcher of all time), and the trade that brought Mike Hampton to Flushing and the Mets to the World Series. But his history also includes such boneheaded moves as signing Rey Ordonez to a four-year contract and bringing in Bobby Bonilla.

Last winter, Steve Phillips did essentially nothing to enhance a team that was three games from a World Championship apart from bringing in approximately 73 middle relievers that he expected to use for trade bait. This brilliant plan did not work out, and the Mets suffered through the worst offensive performance in baseball last season. True, Piazza looked human at times, Ventura dealt with his second straight season of injuries, and Todd Zeile was nonexistent at the plate, but it is Phillips' fault for failing to upgrade an outfield devoid of any real power.

Yesterday, Steve Phillips redeemed himself. In bringing a sure-fire hall-of-famer to the Mets' infield for largely replaceable talent, he has improved the Mets' pathetic offense by a remarkable margin in one fell swoop.

Last week's swap of Ventura for David Justice raised a few questions in my mind about who would play second or third base. Surely Alfonzo would play one, but which? If he moved back to third, would Desi Relaford finally get some consistent playing time at second? If Alfonzo stayed at second, perhaps Joe McEwing would fill in at the hot corner? The second scenario seemed more unlikely, as McEwing is much more valuable off the bench than as a starter, but I still couldn't see Relaford getting the starting job at second.

Before I discuss the impact that Roberto Alomar will have on the Mets, I'd like to talk about what the Mets gave up to get him.
Alex Escobar: The most painful sacrifice, but you gotta give to get. He's still young, and may yet fulfill the potential to be great that so many said he had, but, after last season's callup, it's no longer a can't-miss proposition. His trade value was probably at its highest. And to think Phillips was ready to give him up to get Barry Larkin.
Matt Lawton: Could have been the opening day leadoff man for the Mets, but again, you've got to give to get. Lawton's been improving with time, but he just turned 30 in November: his output could very well have peaked already. Again, high trade value.
Jerrod Riggan: Setup guy. Good middle relief is easy to come by, and this guy is eminently replaceable.
Billy Traber: Great potential with a funky elbow. Too early to tell what he'll make of his career.

For this package plus a PTBNL, the Mets picked up:
Danny Peoples: Minor league talent that could start the season at first if Zeile turns out to be gimpier than expected.
Mike Bacsik: From what I've read, this guy is a finesse pitcher without a big margin for error. Maybe he'll blossom into a middle reliever!

And now, Roberto Alomar. One of the best second basemen on the planet comes to Flushing. A defensive combination of Ordonez/Alomar will make for some great highlight reel-type plays (though, offensively, a combination of Relaford/Alomar would make for some great run-scoring opportunities. A man can dream, can't he?)

Alomar can flat-out hit, and the Mets are now looking at a 2-3-4 of Alfonzo (in a rebound year)-Alomar-Piazza. In one move, the Mets have significantly upgraded their offense without giving up too much. This trade is brilliant.

Hopefully Phillips isn't done. In a perfect world, he'd be able to move Zeile and sign Tino Martinez to play first. Chances are, David Justice won't be on the roster when April 1 rolls around; who can Phillips parlay him into? One FA signing that I'm hoping doesn't happen, however, is Roger Cedeno. Fact is, the Mets don't need him to leadoff because they already have one. Check this out.

   OBP:   1999  2000  2001
Cedeno:   .396  .383  .337
Player B: .363  .391  .364

Player B is Benny Agbayani. Benny also has a significantly higher slugging percentage than Cedeno over the same time period. He is also significantly cheaper than Cedeno would be. As overrated as stolen bases are, Benny is the right choice for leadoff.